Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt Funny
Mock draft: Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary and more conundrums, gut punches and head scratchers
Who doesn't love a mock draft? For as much as we deep dive into player statistics, depth-chart fluctuations, coaching variances, et al, what this virtual game really boils down to is: where should we pick the players we will lead into battle? And a mock draft lays that bare.
The Athletic's first mock draft of the 2019 fantasy football season took place on Wednesday, June 12th, and included many members of The Athletic fantasy football family, in addition to a couple friends of the family. For the record, those involved included myself, Nando Di Fino, Jake Ciely, Derek VanRiper, Michael Salfino, James Koh, Chris Meaney, Brandon Marianne Lee, Gary Davenport, GuruElite's Corey Parson, Fantrax's Mike Florio and Football Diehards' Bob Harris.
The 12 of us mocked for 14 rounds, with the understanding that we were drafting for a 0.5 PPR format with eight starting spots (consisting of QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, TE and FLX) and six bench spots. Because of our desire to include Ciely in this mock process, we agreed to #bankickers and, for his added enjoyment, #bandefenses. This was all about the meat and potatoes of fantasy football — the skill positions.
After the draft, I asked each member for responses to the same three questions: What was your toughest decision? — What was the biggest gut-punch pick by another team? — What was the biggest head-scratcher pick by another team?
Without further ado, let's get to the results (click the table image below for an enlarged view), and the responses:
♦
BRANDON FUNSTON
Pick conundrum: I actually had two picks that I wrestled with pretty hard. The first was between Josh Jacobs and Marlon Mack in Round 3 — I took Jacobs because I think his workload could be massive in Oakland and, if he keeps Jalen Richard off the field regularly on passing downs (I think he will), there's 50+ catch upside. That said, I could see myself going for Mack, and the many positives he brings to the table, the next time I'm faced with the same decision. The next hem-and-haw pick was between the Tylers (Boyd and Lockett) in Round 5. Ultimately I went with the WR (Boyd) from the team that I think will throw the ball a lot more often (Cincy). I know Lockett will be the clear No. 1 in Seattle's air attack now that Doug Baldwin has retired, but Baldwin struggled through injuries last year and Lockett was basically the de facto No. 1 last season, and Boyd was better than Lockett on a per game basis in half PPR by a 0.9-point margin, and was actually better playing with A.J. Green compared to playing without him.
Gut-punch pick: Thankfully this is only a mock and not the real deal, because I would have been livid seeing the top three players in my queue as my Round 6 pick approached — Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Evan Engram — go in succession right ahead of my pick. I wanted Drake, first and foremost, because I was in need of a third RB (or Flex starter), and I think Drake will rebound nicely as a much clearer featured back in a post-Adam Gase universe. I figured if Drake went, rookie Miles Sanders would be a solid fallback option. And, if I was unlucky enough to lose out on both, pivoting to Evan Engram as my first TE would be fine. I don't think I've ever had the exact top three choices I was waiting for go in the three picks directly ahead of me, at least not this late in a draft. As I said, I'm glad it was only a mock. I ended up going with Tevin Coleman, but the pick was made in haste, on the fly, and I hate picking that way.
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Head-scratcher pick: I'll go with Derrius Guice in Round 4 (No. 40 overall, RB21) to Bob Harris. I don't trust his health coming back from a brutal ACL injury that included an infection that required three additional surgeries. And let's not forget Adrian Peterson is kind of a freak of nature, and is spouting off about wanting to reach 2K yards this season — apparently All-Day is scratching his head at Bob Harris' Guice selection as well. Obviously, Guice should usurp Peterson in backfield hierarchy once he's full-go, but there are just enough question marks circling this Washington backfield for me to be uncomfortable with it. That said, I recognize I'm a minority opinion on Guice.
♦
JAKE CIELY
Pick conundrum: T.Y. Hilton.I made the pick and immediately regretted my decision. Even though I'm happy with how my team turned out, at 2.07, I thought long and hard about taking Damien Williams. He's an easy RB1 for me, and I had a sneaky feeling he wasn't making it back to me in the third round. If I went WR with my first pick, I wouldn't have hesitated, but after Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster went back-to-back before me, I felt the need to grab a WR and not risk what would be there in Round 3.
Gut-punch pick: Well, Corey Parson taking Williams just three picks after my dilemma aggravated me, but there were four that really got to me. First, it was back-to-back picks of Derrius Guice and David Montgomery in Round 4, when I wanted to grab my second RB initially. Then, Brandon Funston sniped with the great value pick of Hunter Henry in Round 7. The one that really bothered me, but more so because I needed an RB, was Tyler Lockett at 5.10 (WR26!) to Michael Salfino, mainly because I couldn't do anything about it. I wasn't going to ignore RB for another round, and that's insanely late for Lockett.
Head-scratcher pick: It's a lot of picks, a collective if you will. I don't get most of the quarterback selections. Even while the fourth round is certainly fair value for the top quarterbacks, you need to know your opponent, and the third quarterback didn't come off the board until mid-Round 6. We're all waiting. We all know better. Two more QBs went in Round 8, then Round 10 and five teams still didn't have their quarterback at the start of Round 11. Heck, I took Ben Roethlisberger in the… last… round (QB14). Additionally, if you draft an elite QB (Top 5-7), you are never benching said quarterback, especially if you went early on him. So, why would you ever draft a backup? It's dead weight. If they are both great, then you're left trying to guess the right play each week and/or make a trade where no team wants to give you proper value because they know your situation.
♦
NANDO DI FINO
Pick conundrum: I actually didn't have too many tough choices in this one. I had an internal struggle with Tyreek Hill, and I think it was because I had just looked at his numbers pretty in-depth right before the draft on SportRadar — so many big plays, long passes, fantasy points per week, etc. And I was in a room with Corey Parson and Michael Salfino, talking about it… and I remember going through all the Josh Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott legal stuff the past few years… and I just figured, in Round 4, you're getting a guy who could return Round 1-2 value — if he can avoid any kind of suspension. It seemed like a risk worth taking here, as I wasn't in love with any of the other players in my queue, and I built up enough WR capital with Beckham and Cooper in the first two rounds.
Gut-punch pick: James Koh took my Kenyan Drake target in Round 6. I like the idea of an Adam Gase-less and Ryan Tannehill-less Miami offense allowing Drake to get into some rhythm and take over that offense as the centerpiece. He doesn't have much in the way of competition and he has a lot of talent (4.7 YPC average the past three years), and he would've been perfect for my roster there. So maybe I have to get him in the fifth round going forward now. Lesson learned!
Head-scratcher pick: LeSean McCoy and Devin Singletary back-to-back by Mike Florio (at the Round 8-9 turn) was interesting. I'm not sure it's a head-scratcher as much as I've been mapping out the scenarios that could play out there. I wonder if he's assuming McCoy gets cut and goes to another team, and Singletary takes over, and he now has two RBs with decent workloads… or if he was thinking you need to get both as a handcuff-y type situation. I want answers! I need answers! I know Florio is a Buffalo fan (or he at least wears a Buffalo hat), so it makes it even more interesting.
♦
MICHAEL SALFINO
Pick conundrum: In the first round, I knew my pick was going to be wide receiver. I'm on record here believing that Antonio Brown is going to be the WR1 this year given the targets a John Gruden offense typically allocates to its No. 1 receiver, especially when he's over 30. But Michael Thomas admittedly has a much higher floor.
Gut-punch pick: I hate taking running backs after about the first half of the first round. But the wide receivers flew off the board and I already had a tight end. I can rationalize a running back pick in these early rounds if a back somehow has fallen that I believe can be a top five RB (roughly). I do feel that way about Aaron Jones in a rushing scheme that made stars in Denver, Houston and Washington out of backs with far less talent. But Bob Harris took him right before my pick. I opted for Derrick Henry mostly because I figured Robert Woods would be there with my next pick. But that didn't work out, either.
Head-scratcher pick: This was really hard to find. I will just say not so much for the pick and obviously not the player but just conceptually, "Why take the first QB in a fantasy draft?" Sure, someone has to at some point. But when you can grab Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz 100 picks later, both of whom could be the overall top QB and who are very reasonably top 5 QB candidates, just wait.
♦
DEREK VANRIPER
Pick conundrum: The toughest decision from the Pick 12-13 turn is deciding between Todd Gurley against the seemingly more healthy workhorse backs and WR1 options. Since I had the two picks together, it was essentially Gurley vs. Joe Mixon, Gurley vs. Dalvin Cook, Gurley vs. Julio Jones and Gurley vs. Michael Thomas. I felt the urge to take Gurley since it's possible that the Rams' third-round selection of Darrell Henderson was merely an upgrade to the depth chart behind him, and a way of easing him away from 25+ touches per week into a 18-20 touch range with the hope of keeping him fresh for another Super Bowl run. Essentially, it was a gamble that Gurley's short-term health is not as ominous as some recent reports may lead us to believe.
Gut-punch pick: While I thought for a moment that George Kittle would make it back to me at the end of Round 3 (Pick 36) based on how things were playing out, that's somewhat unrealistic based on early ADPs. The bigger gut punch for me was the combo of D.J. Moore and Tyler Lockett going to Bob Harris and Michael Salfino just before I had a chance to take one or both of them at the Round 5-6 turn. Harris also got me pretty good late with Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Round 11, so I had to "settle" for Tre'Quan Smith instead.
Head-scratcher pick: I can't wait to see how many people in this draft question why I took Kalen Ballage in Round 12, but the biggest head-scratcher on the other rosters was probably Jake Ciely's selection of WR DaeSean Hamilton in Round 9. Most likely, he knew someone else in the room was on the verge of taking Hamilton, but I'm concerned that Hamilton's physical tools and growth as a receiver will be stunted by Joe Flacco in a big way this season.
♦
CHRIS MEANEY
Pick conundrum: I didn't expect to start the draft with DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas, so I knew I'd be selecting a running back with my thrid pick. I still hadn't decided which RB I wanted by the time the draft came back to me, and I took the full clock to choose between Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman and Derrick Henry. All three have RB1 upside, we've seen it, but all three are a little unsettling as your RB1. I went with Fournette as I think Nick Foles gives the Jaguars a bit more balance on offense. Fournette does have 16 touchdowns in 21 games.
Gut-punch pick: Larry Fitzgerald at WR37 wasn't a huge gut punch, but he was a target of mine and he was picked right before me in Round 7. Fitz finished as a top 30 WR last year with poor QB play and brutal coaching. He'll see an upgrade across the board and should only improve on his numbers from last season, making him one of the better values, even at 35 years old.
Head-scratcher pick: I'm not going to chirp about the Todd Gurley pick, because if you feel strong about him you just have to do it, but I wouldn't go any earlier than No. 12 overall on him. Travis Kelce at No. 15 overall is a bit high. There's no way he should be going before Julio Jones and Michael Thomas, as both will finish with more yards and catches than Kelce again this season. Kelce has to have an identical season — which was near record setting for a TE — to return any kind of value. I don't believe a Tyreek Hill suspension (if it happens) will help Kelce as he'll likely demand more attention from opposing defenses.
♦
JAMES KOH
Pick conundrum: My toughest decision came pretty early. In Round 3, I had Aaron Jones and Stefon Diggs both queued up. Given I went WR-WR (Davante Adams-JuJu Smith-Schuster) off the top, I labored over the decision. Ultimately I went with Diggs because of the three wide receiver setup and my belief that Diggs would be the more stable statistical player in 2019. His output of nearly 1,100 scrimmage yards and 100-plus receptions to go along with nine scores last year was no fluke. Barring health concerns, 90-plus receptions, 1,100 yards and between 6-9 touchdowns is a fair projection for 2019.
Gut-punch pick: Devin Singletary going in Round 9, a handful of picks before me, hurt my soul. I can't be certain but I don't think anyone else other than myself and Michael Florio was thinking about him there. Yes, the rookie out of Florida Atlantic bombed the combine and, yes, he is in a crowded situation in Buffalo with LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon all in the RB room. That being said, I love what Singletary put on tape and McCoy could be off the roster come August. Gore is 36 (!!!) and Yeldon scares me 0.0 percent. Look, it's a 50-50 proposition as to whether this pick will bear fruit in 2019 but the upside in Round 9 is enticing.
Head-scratcher pick: If there was one pick I had to say was a reach it might be our friend Nando Di Fino selecting Tyreek Hill in the middle of Round 4 (4.08). I would be absolutely shocked if Hill doesn't face suspension this year. The length of said suspension is unknown but given all the background and the audio, six games seems like a starting point. Plus, given how swiftly Chiefs' ownership moved on from Kareem Hunt, it wouldn't totally shock me to see similar treatment given to Hill. The downside risk is that Hill gives you literally nothing this year. He is a player I'm avoiding in all drafts.
♦
GARY DAVENPORT
Pick conundrum: It might seem like something of a cop-out to call my second pick the hardest decision of the lot, but it was. On one hand, there were some superstar wideouts on the board, including Julio Jones and Michael Thomas. On the other hand, I'm really high on Joe Mixon this year as a back with the potential to crack the elite tier. My backaholism won out, but given my sad-sack WR corps, I may live to regret it.
Gut-punch pick: The second-half of Round 7 was one long gut punch. Courtland Sutton has a good chance to be the No. 1 WR in Denver this year. Lamar Miller is a perennially undervalued fantasy asset at RB. And Larry Fitzgerald is, well, Larry Fitzgerald. So, of course, all three went off the board just before my pick — because God hates me.
Head-scratcher pick: I'm not going to call any pick made by a group of drafters this good a "head-scratcher" — if it doesn't make sense to me it probably has more to do with my own dim-wittedness than the pick itself. That said, I was surprised to see Odell Beckham (1.05) be the first wide receiver taken and Le'Veon Bell follow him as the fifth running back off the board.
♦
COREY PARSON
Pick conundrum: Anyone who has played fantasy football for the past two seasons has debated who is better between teammates Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Both Vikings WRs finished as WR1 last season. Diggs had his first 100-catch season of his career. Thielen countered with 100+ receptions to go along with more than 1,300 receiving yards. My choice in Round 3 was Adam Thielen solely because I trust his durability more.
Gut-punch pick: For the most part I was able to get everyone I was targeting in this mock draft. The one player I had my eye on that did not end up on my team was Tevin Coleman. Yes, San Francisco has many talented backs on their roster. I like Coleman because he had the best season of his career in 2016 when Kyle Shanahan was Atlanta's offensive coordinator. Shanahan now runs the show in San Francisco, and with all that talent in the backfield, he still went and got his guy Tevin Coleman in the offseason.
Head-scratcher pick: This was a great group of fantasy football analysts. No selection stood out to me as a bad pick. What I will say is that Michael Thomas lasting until the fifth pick of Round 2 (No. 17 overall) was an absolute steal. Thomas should be a late first-round pick in PPR and Standard formats — he may be the most consistent wide receiver in fantasy football.
♦
BOB HARRIS
Pick conundrum: I spend considerable time on my radio show and on my various other platforms advising fantasy managers to secure one of the "big three" tight ends in this year's draft. I had a clear shot at George Kittle, but knowing Michael Salfino already had Kelce and Antonio Brown, I was confident he would go running back. I have drafted multiple times with Gary Davenport and couldn't recall him going tight end early. Wasn't sure about Derek VanRiper, but was willing to take my chances on taking Aaron Jones with the (obviously irrational) hope Kittle would make it back around. I rue that pick (although the fact that Salfino suggested Jones was in his crosshairs when I selected him offered some consolation).
Gut-punch pick: Drafting next to Salfino was not fun. We seem to be targeting many of the same players. And as much as I hoped Kelce would reach me in Round 2, I was pretty sure Michael would get him with the pick before me. So that was more disappointing than a gut punch. The gut punch, however, came in Round 6, when I was certain Robby Anderson was mine.
Head-scratcher pick: I don't want to say it makes the least sense, but I definitely have a hard time pulling the trigger on a quarterback in single-digit rounds. That's not to say I'm averse to reaching a bit for upside at the position (see Murray, Kyler; my pick in Round 10). But (in industry drafts), seeing players like Matt Ryan (11th), Cam Newton and Carson Wentz (12th), Drew Brees and Jameis Winston (13th) and Philip Rivers, Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger (in Round 14) going so late should remind all of us that waiting on the position can yield amazing value. Remember, Kirk Cousins, who finished inside the top 10 at the position in what's widely considered a "disappointing" first season with the Vikings, went undrafted here.
♦
MIKE FLORIO
Pick conundrum: The toughest decision for me was deciding if I should invest two picks into the Bills backfield, or to take another back like Latavius Murray or Jerick McKinnon and a receiver such as DaeSean Hamilton (may have been worth it for Jake's reaction alone!). I ultimately went with the two Bills backs because I did not have an RB3 at this point and that looked like the best chance at maximizing the picks and finding a starting RB.
Gut-punch pick: I was really hoping Mike Evans would fall to me in Round 2. I didn't think he would… but sitting there just three picks away, he was still there. My plan was to take Saquon Barkley and then two WRs. With Evans gone, I decided to pivot and select Dalvin Cook.
Head-scratcher pick: Kareem Hunt going at the end of Round 8 is just too rich for my blood. The Browns have a Week 7 bye, meaning that you will not have an active Hunt (8-game suspension) in your lineup until Week 10. Plus, once he is back, Nick Chubb is not going to go anywhere. It is going to be very difficult to stash a suspended running back that long, especially if you have poor injury luck or are hit heavy with byes. I think Hunt will be dropped in many leagues before he returns.
(Top photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Source: https://theathletic.com/1024208/2019/06/17/fantasy-football-mock-draft-12-team-0-5-ppr/
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